East Valley Loop

The Phoenix residential real estate market is witnessing a significant shift in dynamics, creating what many experts are now calling the best buying opportunity in over a decade. With pending sales plummeting to their lowest mark since December 2007, the market landscape has dramatically transformed in favor of home buyers. According to recent data from Phoenix REALTORS®, there are now nearly 21,000 homes available on the market throughout Greater Phoenix, giving prospective purchasers an unprecedented selection and negotiating power.

This remarkable shift comes as inventory levels have surged by 30.3% since June alone, creating a 4.3-month supply of homes—a key indicator of a buyer’s market. While the national economy continues to face uncertainty, the Phoenix metro area has maintained relatively stable median home prices, with just a slight 0.6% decrease to $470,000. For the home buyer looking to make a move, these conditions represent a rare confluence of factors not seen since the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The current market conditions have dramatically altered the typical home-buying timeline and experience. July’s data showed homes sitting on the market for significantly longer periods—an increase of 11 days in month-over-month comparisons, representing the greatest jump since March 2012. This extended market time creates valuable breathing room for the home buyer to carefully consider options, perform thorough inspections, and approach the purchasing process with considerably less pressure than in recent years.

Christy Walker, board president of Phoenix REALTORS, noted, “The market has a lot of opportunities and mortgage rates have stabilized, but it’s taking longer to sell a home.” This observation underscores the fundamental market shift taking place across the Valley. While year-to-date data shows closed sales up 1.8% over 2024, the dramatic 27.3% drop in pending sales from June to July signals a significant cooling that favors those looking to purchase rather than sell.

Across all major cities in the Phoenix metropolitan area, the pattern of declining pending sales is consistent and striking. From Mesa’s 25.5% drop to Buckeye’s dramatic 31.1% plunge in pending transactions, sellers throughout the region are facing a new reality where their properties no longer command premium prices or rapid sales cycles of recent years. This widespread cooling effect has created opportunities for home buyers to negotiate more favorable terms in ways that would have been unthinkable during the seller’s market of the past several years.

The median home price trend further illustrates this market correction, with prices either holding steady or showing modest declines in most areas. Scottsdale, for example, saw month-over-month sale prices drop 3.6% to $1.12 million from $1.16 million in June. Even in areas where median prices increased slightly, such as Mesa and Chandler, the dramatic decline in pending sales suggests sellers are becoming increasingly willing to negotiate on price to secure a transaction in this slower market.

Perhaps most telling for potential home buyers is the notable increase in days on market across virtually all communities. In Mesa, homes now typically sit for 69 days before selling—a striking 40.8% increase from June’s 49-day average. Similarly, Peoria saw its average days on market climb to 80 days from 66 in June. These extended timeframes create significant leverage for buyers, who can now approach negotiations with far less urgency and greater confidence.

The housing affordability index holding steady at 69 in July, despite the challenging economic climate, suggests that the combination of stable mortgage rates and cooling prices is creating a more accessible market for many prospective home buyers. While still below ideal levels, this stability in affordability, coupled with the increased inventory and slower sales pace, positions today’s buyers to potentially secure better value than at any point in recent memory.

Industry observers note that while July is typically a slower month for real estate transactions, the current market conditions extend well beyond seasonal factors. With inventory up substantially year-over-year and new listings continuing to grow by 11.3% compared to the same period last year, the fundamental supply-demand equation has shifted decisively. For the strategic home buyer willing to navigate this changing landscape, the opportunity to secure favorable terms, request seller concessions, and negotiate from a position of strength represents a significant reversal from the competitive bidding wars that characterized the market in recent years.

As the Greater Phoenix market continues to adjust, buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines may find that the current conditions offer precisely the opening they’ve been hoping for. With sellers increasingly motivated to close transactions and a growing selection of properties to choose from, the balance of power in Phoenix residential real estate has undeniably shifted toward those looking to purchase. For many, this may indeed represent the best buying opportunity of the decade.